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Democracy under threat from authoritarians – report

1 March 20230 comments

The march of democracy across the globe has stalled with just eight per cent of people living in country deemed a “full democracy” and 37 per cent living under authoritarian rule, according to the latest Democracy Index.

And the index for 2022 it has not bounced back after the lifting of COVID-19 pandemic restrictions in many countries.

Compiled by the Economist Intelligence Unit since 2006, ‘The Democracy Index’, gives a snapshot of the state of democratic processes world-wide, focusing on 165 nations using the five categories: electoral process and pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties.

The index categorises countries and regimes as one of four types of regime: ‘full democracy’, ‘flawed democracy’, ‘hybrid regime’ or ‘authoritarian regime’.

It found almost half of the world’s population live in a democracy of some sort (45.3 per cent).

“Only eight per cent reside in a ‘full democracy’, compared with 8.9 per cent in 2015, before the US was demoted from a ‘full democracy’ to a ‘flawed democracy’ in 2016,” the report said.

“More than one-third of the world’s population live under authoritarian rule (36.9 per cent), with a large share of them being in China and Russia,” it said.

According to the index, 72 of the 167 countries and territories covered by the model, or 43.1 per cent of the total, can be considered to be democracies.

The number of ‘full democracies’ increased to 24 in 2022, up from 21 in 2021, as Chile, France and Spain re-joined the top-ranked countries – those scoring more than 8 on a scale of 10.

The number of ‘flawed democracies’ fell by five to 48 in 2022. Of the remaining 95 countries in our index, 59 are ‘authoritarian regimes’, the same as in 2021, and 36 are classified as ‘hybrid regimes’, up from 34 the previous year.

The report says the situation in two countries that are home to more than 20 per cent of the world’s population, China and Russia, took a decisive turn for the worse in 2022.

“Russia recorded the biggest decline in score of any country in the world in 2022. Its invasion of Ukraine was accompanied by all-out repression and censorship at home,” it said.

“Russia has been on a trajectory away from democracy for a long time and is now acquiring many of the features of a dictatorship.

“Meanwhile, until the end of 2022, China doubled down on its zero-COVID policy, using the most draconian methods to stop the spread of the virus, locking up tens of millions of people for prolonged periods until protests erupted towards the end of the year,” the report said.

It identified the biggest event of the year as Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, a violation of Ukrainian sovereignty that sent shockwaves around the world.

“Russia’s actions have brought home to many the vital importance of defending national sovereignty, without which real freedom and democracy are unattainable,” the report said.

“From a global perspective the year 2022 was a disappointing one for democracy, given expectations that there might be a rebound in the overall index score as pandemic-related prohibitions were lifted over the course of the year.

“Instead, the average global score stagnated. At 5.29, it scarcely improved from the 5.28 recorded in 2021.

“This leaves the index score well below the pre-pandemic global average of 5.44, and even further below the historical high of 5.55 recorded in 2014 and 2015.”

Regional results also reflect the stagnation in the global democracy in 2022, the report said.

“The regional average score for Asia and Australasia in 2022 remains the same as in the previous year, at 5.46. The regional averages for North America (8.37), Sub-Saharan Africa (4.14) and eastern Europe (5.39) have scarcely changed either compared with 2021, when they were 8.36, 4.12 and 5.36 respectively,” the report said.

“Only the Middle East and North Africa records a notable overall deterioration, with its average score falling from 3.41 in 2021 to 3.34 in 2022, while Latin America and the Caribbean continues its recent decline, but at a slower pace than last year: its score falls from 5.83 in 2021 to 5.79 in 2022.

“Only Western Europe records an emphatic improvement in its average score, which recovered from an all-time low of 8.22 in 2021 to reach 8.36 in 2022.

“This returns Western Europe to where it was in 2019, prior to the pandemic, when it recorded a score of 8.35. However, the region, which is home to the majority of the world’s most developed democracies, continues to underperform compared with its peak score of 8.61 in 2008,” the report said.

The good news is that the number of countries recording an improvement in their score (75) has risen compared with 2021, when only 47 managed to do so. However, the index scores for the other 92 countries have either stagnated (48) or declined (44) in 2022.

The report outlines some impressive democratic gains in some countries, but also some dramatic declines.

Thailand recorded the biggest overall score improvement in 2022, increasing its total from 6.04 in 2021 to 6.67, the report said.

Other big improvers were Angola and Niger, from a low base in the “authoritarian regime” category, and Montenegro and Greece, which are both classified as “flawed democracies”. Having improved its score by 0.41 points, Greece is now close to being reclassified as a “full democracy”.

“Foremost among the countries that performed poorly in 2022 was Russia, which had the biggest deterioration in score of any country in the world,” the report said.

“Russia’s score dropped by 0.96 points to 2.28 from 3.24 in 2021 and its global ranking fell from 124th (out of 167) to 146th, close to the bottom of the global rankings. Belarus, whose president Alyaksandar Lukashenka is closely allied with his Russian counterpart, also suffered a sharp fall in its Democracy Index score.”

A particular focus of this year’s Democracy Index report is Russia’s war in Ukraine and its importance for the future of democracy in Europe and globally.

“The commitment of the Ukrainian people to fight for the right to decide their own future is inspiring. It shows the power of democratic ideas and principles to bind together a nation and its people in the pursuit of democracy,” the report said.

“If it was not immediately possible to identify a coherent Ukrainian national identity at the time of the Maidan protests in 2014, when the country was still divided between west and east, in 2022 Ukraine’s fightback against Russian domination has strengthened national sentiment and demonstrated the incontrovertibility of Ukrainian nationhood,” it said.

The report said the war in Ukraine was the product of an imperial mindset.

“Vladimir Putin’s dream of restoring Russia’s position as an imperial power is foundering,” it said.

“After more than ten months of fighting in Ukraine, it was clear by the end of 2022 that Russia was not only losing on the battlefield, but also struggling to win the propaganda war at home and abroad. Its bungled military campaign was provoking criticism from diehard nationalists, while the high death toll and the regime’s clumsy mobilisation were bringing the war home to ordinary Russians and unsettling them.

“A corollary of the war has been a pronounced increase in state repression against all forms of dissent and a further personalisation of power, pushing Russia towards outright dictatorship. Russia recorded the biggest annual fall in its index score of any country in the world in 2022 and dropped further down the global rankings,” the report said.