India is set to become the most populous country in the world, eclipsing Chine which has been home to the largest population since 1950, when records began.

United Nations estimates say India will overtake China in April, but may have already reached the milestone because the UN data is based on projections.

This is despite the fact that, typically, more people migrate out of India each year than into it, resulting in negative net migration.

India lost about 300,000 people due to migration in 2021, according to UN data. And the UN’s medium variant projections suggest India will continue to experience net negative migration through at least 2100.

The Washington-based think tank the Pew Research Center has compiled key facts about India’s population and its projected changes in coming years.

The Pew research says India – unlike China and the third most populous country, the US – does not have a rapidly ageing population.

Adults, aged 65 and older, comprise only 7 per cent of India’s population as of this year, compared with 14 per cent in China and 18 per cent in the U.S, it says.

“The share of Indians who are 65 and older is likely to remain under 20 per cent until 2063 and will not approach 30 per cent until 2100, under the UN’s medium variant projections,” Pew says.

The fertility rate in India is higher than in China and the U.S., but it has declined in recent decades.

“Today, the average Indian woman is expected to have 2.0 children in her lifetime, a fertility rate that is higher than China’s (1.2) or the United States’ (1.6), but much lower than India’s in 1992 (3.4) or 1950 (5.9),” the Pew report says.

“Every religious group in the country has seen its fertility rate fall, including the majority Hindu population and the Muslim, Christian, Sikh, Buddhist and Jain minority groups.

“Among Indian Muslims, for example, the total fertility rate has declined dramatically from 4.4 children per woman in 1992 to 2.4 children in 2019, the most recent year for which data is available.

“Muslims still have the highest fertility rate among India’s major religious groups, but the gaps in childbearing among India’s religious groups are generally much smaller than they used to be.”

The research shows fertility rates vary widely by community type and state in India.

On average, women in rural areas have 2.1 children in their lifetimes, while women in urban areas have 1.6 children. Both numbers are lower than they were 20 years ago, when rural and urban women had an average of 3.7 and 2.7 children, respectively.

Total fertility rates also vary greatly by state in India, from as high as 2.98 in Bihar and 2.91 in Meghalaya to as low as 1.05 in Sikkim and 1.3 in Goa.

“Similarly, population growth varies across states. The populations of Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh both increased by 25 per cent or more between 2001 and 2011, when the last Indian census was conducted,” the Pew research says.

“By comparison, the populations of Goa and Kerala increased by less than 10 per cent during that span, while the population in Nagaland shrank by 0.6 per cent. These differences may be linked to uneven economic opportunities and quality of life,” it says.

On average, Indian women in urban areas have their first child 1.5 years later than women in rural areas.

“Among Indian women aged 25 to 49 who live in urban areas, the median age at first birth is 22.3. Among similarly aged women in rural areas, it is 20.8,” the Pew research says.

“Women with more education and more wealth also generally have children at later ages. The median age at first birth is 24.9 among Indian women with 12 or more years of schooling, compared with 19.9 among women with no schooling.

“Similarly, the median age at first birth is 23.2 for Indian women in the highest wealth quintile, compared with 20.3 among women in the lowest quintile.”

Infant mortality in India has decreased 70 per cent in the past three decades but remains high by regional and international standards.

“There were 89 deaths per 1,000 live births in 1990, a figure that fell to 27 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2020. Since 1960, when the UN Interagency Group for Child Mortality Estimation began compiling this data, the rate of infant deaths in India has dropped between 0.1 per cent and 0.5 per cent each year,” the report says.

“Still, India’s infant mortality rate is higher than those of neighboring Bangladesh (24 deaths per 1,000 live births), Nepal (24), Bhutan (23) and Sri Lanka (6) – and much higher than those of its closest peers in population size, China (6) and the US (5).”

See the full report: Key facts about India’s growing population as it surpasses China’s population | Pew Research Center