The election of Donald Trump as US President could have a disastrous impact on humanitarian and refugee relief efforts around the globe, agencies and NGOs are claiming.

Among Trump’s election campaign promises were an end to irregular immigration to the US and the deportation of asylum seekers, a turn away from action on climate change and an ‘America first’ more insular United States.

Trumps return also injects an unprecedented amount of volatility into the world’s humanitarian system and response to emergencies, both for people suffering through them and for people and organisations trying to respond.

As leader of the world’s biggest donor government to an aid system already stretched by growing humanitarian needs and tightening funding, the US is a key part of global humanitarian responses.

Funding for humanitarian aid under Trump is likely to be more politicised than ever with grants linked to national interests and cuts used as a deterrent.

Oxfam America CEO Abby Maxman said of Trump that he had “stoked the rise of white supremacy and authoritarianism while undermining critical international institutions that provide lifesaving support for people in crisis all around the world”. 

Agencies and commentators are saying a new Trump administration will almost certainly use its power to redistribute funding within the aid system along ideological lines – away from the larger established agencies towards selectively chosen faith-based groups.

They say this could have the effect of defunding program focused on reproductive health.

And some commentators see even more danger in the detail of the so-called Project 2025 “presidential transition project” – a manifesto written by the ultra-conservative Heritage Foundation.

The manifesto says humanitarian aid is “sustaining war economies” and “propping up malign regimes”, while humanitarians are “reaping billions of dollars in profits from diversions of our humanitarian assistance”.

A Trump administration could also see a return to settings that stymie aid organisations that work on women’s reproductive health – with disastrous consequences for people in crisis, agencies say.

For instance, the “global gag rule” stops US health funding from going to organisations that provide services, referrals, or advice related to abortions.

Since the policy was created by the Reagan administration in the 1980s, the global gag rule has been repealed and reinstated in turn by successive Democrat and Republican presidents. It is likely to return under Trump, NGOs say.

Trump’s resurrection marks another likely barrier for action on climate change, coming ahead of the COP29, set to begin soon in Azerbaijan.

During his first administration, Trump attempted to withdraw from the Paris Agreement climate accord. COP29 is seen as a vital meeting around financing, as countries come together to agree on new targets.

There is mounting evidence that climate change is an increasing factor in human displacement and one which exacerbates the humanitarian effects of conflict.

Trump’s return comes ahead of a crucial four years as the window for averting a climate catastrophe narrows.

Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative chief Harjeet Singh said the world could not “afford for its largest historical carbon emitter and top fossil fuel producer to shirk its responsibility”.

“By stepping back from climate commitments, Trump’s actions threaten to unravel trust in a global system already strained by the indifference and inaction of wealthy nations,” he said.

Meanwhile, in the US, immigration advocates and civil rights groups are preparing to oppose Trump’s campaign promises to crack down on immigration, which include reviving controversial policies of his first term to enacting mass deportations.  

Trump has pledged to end, immediately after retaking office, parole programs that have allowed immigrants to work and live in the country legally. In those humanitarian parole programs, as of 2021, more than 100,000 migrants were given temporary protection.

The Trump administration is likely to re-implement his previous immigration policies, such as bans on allowing people from predominantly Muslim countries into the US and reinstating the “Remain in Mexico” policy that requires asylum seekers to remain in Mexico while they await their cases.

Immigration groups are preparing to respond to these policies and the others to follow ahead of Inauguration Day.

National Immigration Project executive director Sirine Shebaya said: “We recognise that many are feeling terrified about what the next four years will bring”.

“While we cannot stop all the harms from coming to pass, we say to everyone facing harm: we are here to do everything in our power to support and protect each other.”

The American Civil Liberties Union, which has led challenges to some of Trump’s harshest immigration policies during his first term, said on social media it is prepared for legal challenges beginning on Trump’s first day in office. 

The US’ largest immigrant youth organisation United We Dream is preparing to fight expected mass deportations.

The group’s executive director Greisa Martínez Rosas said: “We will use and grow our power to new heights, building the largest pro-immigrant movement this country has ever seen, to fight back against white nationalism, and to enact a vision for the future that honours our values of a pluralistic democracy where everyone can live and thrive without fear”.

Some immediate deportations could include almost 40,000 people already in Immigration and Customs Enforcement custody.

They could also include expanding expedited removals, which means if a person lacking permanent legal status is in the country for two years without a court hearing or any type of authorization, they can be deported without a hearing before a judge.

Immigration think tank The Migration Policy Institute has estimated that “the expansion of expedited removal to the US interior could apply to as many as 288,000 people”.

Economic experts have warned of the consequences of removing millions of workers.

Executive director of the American Immigration Council Jeremy Robbins said the economic effects of mass deportations could be dire.

“Should any president choose to pursue mass deportation, it would come at an extraordinary cost to the government while also devastating the economy,” Mr Robbins said.

“It’s critical that policymakers and the American public understand what this would involve: tens of billions of tax-payer dollars, already-strained industries devastated, millions of people locked up in detention, and thousands of families torn apart causing widespread terror and chaos in communities across the country.”

In 2022, households led by undocumented immigrants paid $75.6 billion in total taxes, according to the American Immigration Council.

The Washington based Pew Research Center estimates about 4.8 per cent of the US workforce is made up of unauthorised immigrants.