Northern Gaza is likely to experience famine in coming weeks because of Israel’s siege, according to a new analysis by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS).

“The severity of acute food insecurity in Gaza has sharply worsened since early October, when Israel began to increasingly restrict humanitarian and commercial food supply flows to the north and commercial food supply flows to the south,” said the analysis by FEWS, an arm of USAID.

“In the worst-affected areas in North Gaza governorate, including Jabaliya, Beit Hanoun, and Beit Lahia, a siege has caused the near-total blockade of food supply flows since October 1.

“In the absence of a dramatic increase in food supply flows, Famine (IPC Phase 5) will become the most likely outcome in North Gaza,” the analysis says.

Although famine hasn’t yet been officially declared, the analysis warned that immediate action is needed to “facilitate large-scale, sustained delivery of food and nutrition assistance”.

Since early October, Israel has blocked almost all food supplies from entering the three northern areas of the Gaza Strip – while carrying out a military campaign that has forcibly displaced large numbers of people.

The Israeli military has also said it has no intention of allowing the people who have been forced out to return.

Reports say the amount of aid Israel allowed into Gaza in October was at its lowest level since last October, when the entire enclave was under total siege for two weeks, and humanitarian conditions are worse than they have been at any point during Israel’s war of attrition.

At the end of October, the UN’s human rights office warned that Israel’s actions in North Gaza “may be causing the destruction of the Palestinian population”, reminding Israel that it had been ordered by the International Court of Justice to refrain from committing genocidal acts.

Meanwhile, the intentional starvation of the population and mass civilian casualties in the Gaza Strip is “consistent with the characteristics of genocide”, according to a separate report by a UN special committee investigating Israel’s conduct in the enclave.

Last month, the US gave Israel a 30-day ultimatum to improve the drastically worsening humanitarian conditions in North Gaza and throughout the enclave. Humanitarian organisations have said little, or no progress has been made.

Read the FEWS analysis here: If food supplies remain blocked, then Famine (IPC Phase 5) will most likely occur in North Gaza | FEWS NET