Late last month a ballot was held to identify 280 people who will be the first to arrive in Australia from the Pacific island nation of Tuvalu under the Falepili Union Treaty. 

This represents the first planned migration of an entire country in response to the effects of climate change. 

And it comes after studies predict that much of Tuvalu’s territory will be submerged in the next 25 years because of climate change-induced rising sea levels. 

The island nation of nine coral islands and atolls inhabited by just over 11,000 people. Most of its territory is just two metres above sea level, making it catastrophically vulnerable to rising seas, flooding and storm surges. 

A NASA study in 2023 found the sea level in Tuvalu was 15 centimeters higher than the average recorded over the previous thirty years. 

If the trend continues, the study says most of Tuvalu, including most of its buildings and infrastructure, will be below the high-tide mark by 2050.

The climate visa agreement between Australia Tuvalu is a response to this existential threat and amounts to migration scheme that will allow 280 Tuvaluans per year to settle in Australia as permanent residents. 

The visas will be allocated through a ballot system and will grant beneficiaries the same health, education, housing, and employment rights enjoyed by Australian citizens. In addition, Tuvaluans will retain the ability to return to their home country if conditions permit. 

The first stage of applications in the ballot saw 8,750 registrations, which includes family members. 

When combined with other Pacific visa pathways to Australia and New Zealand, nearly four percent of the population could migrate each year, experts say. 

And inside a decade almost 40 per cent of the population may have migrated. 

Penny Wong, Australia’s foreign minister, said in a statement that  

The program gives Tuvaluans a chance to settle in Australia “with dignity as climate impacts worsen”, according to Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong. 

She said the initiative reflected the deep trust between the two nations and that Tuvaluans were expected to make a valuable contribution to Australian society. 

Meanwhile, Tuvalu, faced with the threat of disappearing, had launched a strategy to become the world’ first digital nation. 

The plan includes 3D scanning of the islands to digitally re-create them and preserve their cultural heritage, as well as moving government functions to a virtual environment. 

The project is also considering constitutional reforms to define the country as a virtual state, a concept already recognised by 25 countries, including Australia and New Zealand. 

The NASA study found that global sea levels rose more than expected over the last year. It said the annual rate of increase has doubled since 1993, with a rise of 10 centimetres in that period.  

Pacific islands are particularly vulnerable to rising seas, although the impacts are also predicted elsewhere. 

Sea levels in the Gulf of Mexico, for instance, have recently risen at three times the global average, according to another study. 

Read Penny Wong’s statement: Supporting stronger relationships in the Pacific through the opening of the Falepili Mobility Pathway ballot | Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs