The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees Barham Salih has laid out a plan to halve the number of long-term refugees across the globe.

In an article published by the London-based think tank Chatham House Dr Salih said his organisation UNHCR had set a goal to halve the world’s 40 million long-term refugees by 2035.

“UNHCR is proposing a clear, measurable goal: to halve by 2035 the number of refugees trapped in protracted displacement and dependent on humanitarian relief. We are calling this goal ‘50 by 35’,” Dr Barham wrote.

“Achieving it will require a broader coalition. UNHCR’s role is to help bring it together. Over the next decade, we must build more lasting solutions for refugees, including their voluntary return in safety and dignity,” he wrote.

“At the same time, we must reduce aid dependency by giving refugees opportunities to work, become self-reliant and contribute to the communities hosting them.

“The ‘50 by 35’ vision does not mean cutting aid. Humanitarian assistance, often the difference between life and death and already pared to the bone, remains indispensable. This agenda is about reducing the need for aid.

“Too many refugee situations begin as emergencies and calcify into permacrises. Systems built as short-term responses are now being asked to keep millions afloat for decades. If aid is all we offer, we are not solving displacement.”

Dr Barham said that the most powerful solution to the refugee problem was peace.

“The ending of conflicts that create refugees in the first place is the most powerful solution. Syria makes the point starkly. Since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s dictatorial regime in late 2024, more than 1.6 million Syrian refugees have returned home,” he said.

“But crossing a border is only the beginning. Return only becomes sustainable when people can safely rebuild their lives with access to the infrastructure and basic services they need.”

He said integration into host countries, citizenship and resettlement were also part of the solution.

“For others, an end to displacement may come through integration in the country in which they have found refuge and, in some cases, citizenship. Resettlement can provide a vital lifeline for those who cannot safely remain where they are, while family reunification, scholarships and labour mobility can open ways to a better future.

“Yet the gap between the number of people who need these opportunities and the places available keeps widening. We must keep making the case for countries to offer more,” he said.

Dr Barham said an inclusive approach was also a key element of the solution.

“For those who cannot yet return home, the path out of dependency is inclusion. This means access to national education and healthcare systems, financial services and labour markets in their country of asylum,” he said.

“The evidence is compelling: numerous studies show that when refugees participate in economic life, incomes rise and dependency falls, while host economies gain workers, entrepreneurs, consumers and taxpayers. And when return becomes possible, refugees can take home skills needed to rebuild their countries.

“Several countries are proving this isn’t wishful thinking. In Kenya, the government’s ‘Shirika Plan’, launched last year, has helped convert refugee camps into integrated settlements where refugees and host communities share public services, land and markets – replacing indefinite encampment with communities that function for everyone,” Dr Barham said.

He also pointed to Turkey and Latin America as places where refugees had been embraced by communities.

“Turkey, host to one of the world’s largest refugee populations, has accepted hundreds of thousands of Syrian children into its national school system, helping prevent the creation of a lost generation while building skills refugees will need whether they stay or eventually go home,” Dr Barham said.

“Meanwhile in Latin America, governments across the region have created legal pathways for millions of displaced Venezuelans to gain regular status, work, healthcare and education.”

He said these examples showed that investing in refugee self-reliance brings returns for their own communities by generating tax revenue, stability and greater social cohesion.

“The International Monetary Fund estimates that Venezuelan incomers could increase GDP in major Latin American host countries by up to 4.4 per cent by 2030,” Dr Barham said.

“This pattern holds everywhere. The Refugee Welfare Report 2026, published by UNHCR and the World Bank, demonstrates that expanding refugees’ access-to-work opportunities could sharply cut refugee poverty and meaningfully raise incomes among the poorest refugee households. Investing in refugee self-reliance is also cost-effective.

“A separate joint report on the cost of meeting refugees’ subsistence needs estimates that allowing refugees to be as economically active as their hosts could reduce the annual assistance required to meet those needs by as much as $16 billion globally,” Dr Barham said.

He said funding arrangements were also critical to the solution. Global humanitarian funding has been decimated since the advent of the Trump administration in the US, which has withdrawn from multiple humanitarian programs.

Dr Barham said that, despite this development, there were encouraging signs of a shift.

“The World Bank, for example, has established dedicated financing that helps governments include refugees in national systems while boosting overall economic growth,” he said.

“With more grants and similar financial support, hosting countries can dramatically improve life for both refugees and host communities. If we are serious about reducing dependency and leaving no one behind, refugee inclusion must be embedded within the development agenda rather than treated as a parallel track.”

Dr Barham evoked his own experience as refugee is laying out the plan.

“Being a refugee was never meant to be a permanent status. Most want to go home but many are unable to do so safely while peace is elusive. According to the International Committee of the Red Cross there are some 130 active conflicts around the world. Leaving the victims of war in exile with no prospect of a better life is a humanitarian and developmental failure,” he said.

“I know something about what opportunity can do. As a young Kurd in Iraq in the late 1970s, my identity was treated as a threat. I was denied freedom and a positive future felt out of reach.

“But I was fortunate. I was offered a path to safety, education and a new beginning in the UK, transforming my life. Crucially, I was able to return to my country and play a part in its future. Too few of today’s refugees are given the same chance,” Dr Barham said.

Read the full article: My plan to cut the number of long-term refugees by half | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank