2024 was a dire year for conflict and human displacement with a record number of wars fuelling humanitarian crises and displacement globally, according to a new report.

The ‘Global Peace Index’ report, by the Sydney and London-based think tank the Institute for Economics and Peace, says the world is at a dangerous crossroads and, without concerted effort, there is a risk of a surge in major conflicts.

The report says there here are currently 56 conflicts across the world, the most since World War II.

And they have become more international with 92 countries involved in conflicts outside their borders.

More than 120 million people are either refugees or internally displaced due to violent conflict, with 16 countries now hosting more than half a million refugees.

And conflict is costing the global economy almost $US20 trillion a year.

The report says the rising number of minor conflicts is increasing the likelihood of more major conflicts in the future.

“For example, in 2019, Ethiopia, Ukraine, and Gaza were all identified as minor conflicts. Last year they recorded 162,000 conflict related deaths. This was the second highest toll in the past 30 years, with the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza accounting for nearly three-quarters of deaths,” the report says.

“Ukraine represented more than half, recording 83,000 conflict deaths, with estimates of at least 33,000 for Palestine up to April 2024. In the first four months of 2024, conflict related deaths globally amounted to 47,000. If the same rate continues for the rest of this year, it would be the highest number of conflict deaths since the Rwandan genocide in 1994,” the report says.

It says global economic impact of violence in 2023 was $US19.1 trillion or $US2,380 per person. This is an increase of $US158 billion, driven largely by a 20 per cent increase in GDP losses from conflict.

Spending on peace initiatives and peacekeeping totaled $US49.6 billion, representing less than 0.6 per cent of total military spending, the report says.

Iceland is ranked as the most peaceful country, a position it has held since 2008, followed by Ireland, Austria, New Zealand, and Singapore.

Yemen has replaced Afghanistan as the least peaceful country in the world. It is followed by Sudan, South Sudan, Afghanistan and Ukraine.

The report says the Middle East and North Africa are the least peaceful regions – home to four of the ten least peaceful countries in the world and the two least peaceful, Sudan and Yemen.

The report says conflicts are changing in nature, becoming more widespread and more international.

It says the increasing complexity of conflicts is reducing the likelihood of achieving lasting solutions.

“Ukraine and Gaza are examples of ongoing historical grievances or ‘forever wars’ without clear resolutions. The number of conflicts resulting in a decisive victory for either side has fallen from 49 per cent in the 1970s, to less than 9 per cent in the 2010s,” the report says.

“Over the same period, the number of conflicts that ended through peace agreements fell from 23 per cent to just over 4 per cent.”

The report says a key factor reshaping conflict is the impact of asymmetric warfare technology, making it much easier for non-state groups, as well as smaller or less powerful states, to compete in conflicts with larger states or governments.

“The number of states using drones rose from 16 to 40, a 150 per cent increase between 2018 and 2023. Over the same period, the number of non-state groups which committed at least one drone attack rose from 6 to 91, an increase of over 1,400 per cent,” the report says.

Founder and Executive Chair of IEP Steve Killelea said that over the past decade, peacefulness has declined in nine out of the ten years.

“We are witnessing a record number of conflicts, a rise in militarisation, and heightened international strategic competition. Conflict negatively affects the global economy, and business risk from conflict has never been higher, compounding the current global economic vulnerabilities,” Mr Killelea said.

“It is imperative for governments and businesses worldwide to intensify their efforts to resolve the many minor conflicts before they escalate into larger crises. It’s been 80 years since the end of WWII, and the current crises underscore the urgency for world leaders to commit to investing in resolving these conflicts,” he said.