The forced return of millions of Afghans from neighbouring Pakistan and Iran is pushing Afghanistan to the brink of a dire humanitarian crisis, the UN refugee agency has said.

An unprecedented 150,000 Afghans have returned home from Pakistan and Iran so far this year, adding to the 5.4 million Afghans who have gone back to Afghanistan from the same two neighbouring countries since October 2023.

The UNHCR’s Afghanistan representative Arafat Jamal said the returns were unprecedented.

“This is massive, and the speed and scale of these returns has pushed Afghanistan nearly to the brink,” Mr Jamal said, “Last year, 2.9 million people returned to Afghanistan. It was the largest number of returns that we have witnessed to any single country.”

Pakistan launched a sweeping crackdown in October 2023 to expel migrants without documents, urging those in the country to leave of their own accord to avoid arrest and forcible deportation and forcibly expelling others. Iran also began a crackdown on migrants around the same time.

Since then, millions have streamed across the border into Afghanistan, including people who were born in Pakistan decades ago and had built lives and created businesses there.

Afghanistan is already struggling with a dire humanitarian situation and an erosion of human rights, particularly relating to women and girls.

The massive influx of people now amounts to 12 per cent of the population and has put the country under severe strain, Mr Jamal said.

The Afghan government provide care packages for those returning that include some food aid and cash as well as transport to parts of the country where they have family.

But the returns have strained resources in a country that was already struggling to cope with a weak economy and the effects of a severe drought and two devastating earthquakes.

In November, the UN development program reported nine out of 10 families in areas of Afghanistan with high rates of return were resorting to what are termed ‘negative coping mechanisms’, such as skipping meals, falling into debt or selling their belongings to survive.

“We are deeply concerned about the sustainability of these returns,” Mr Jamal said.

“These decisions, I would underscore, to undertake dangerous journeys, are not driven by a lack of a desire to remain in the country, on the contrary, but the reality that many are unable to rebuild their viable and dignified lives,” he said.

According to a recent report by the World Bank, rapid population growth fuelled by these returns led to a 4 per cent decline in GDP per capita in 2025.

The high number of returns already this year is particularly concerning given the severity of winter, with freezing temperatures and heavy snowfall across much of the country.

A recent UNHCR survey of returnees revealed the scale of challenges faced. Just over half reported being able to find some form of work, even if informal.

For women, the figure was less than a quarter. More than half of returnee families reported having no documentation, such as identity cards to prove who they are or where they are from, and more than 90 per cent are living on less than $US5 a day.

“This year, our focus is on supporting the reintegration of returnees. We have the access, presence and experience of the last four decades in Afghanistan to deliver the assistance that communities say they most need, including protection services, housing and livelihood support, particularly for women,” Mr Jamal said,

He said that given the dire humanitarian situation and rapidly increasing population, additional support is urgently needed in 2026 to scale up assistance and invest in.