Ten years ago this month, people smugglers abandoned more than 8000 Rohingya refugees and migrants on rickety boats in the Andaman Sea. An estimated 370 of them died.

The deaths brought global attention to a crisis spanning five countries and initiatives aimed at ending the deaths.

But a decade on, little has changed. Just last month, 427 Rohingya perished at sea in two shipwrecks, the United Nations reported.

Between 2012 to 2015, about 170,000 Rohingya Muslims fled persecution in Myanmar and the refugee camps of Bangladesh on overcrowded smugglers’ boats.

In May 2015, pushbacks by Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia left an estimated 8,000 Rohingya adrift in the open sea, at risk of dehydration, illness, and drowning.

Harrowing details of violent traffickers, mass graves, and hundreds of deaths at sea triggered regional and international pledges to better protect migrants and trafficking victims in Southeast Asia.

But today, Rohingya seeking asylum are still being tortured, extorted, and left to die, while the violence and repression pushing them from their homes continues and routes used by traffickers have become more risky and more complex.

Thousands of Rohingya continue to embark on these dangerous journeys each year to escape the oppression and conflict in Rakhine State amid burgeoning hopelessness and desperation in Bangladesh’s refugee camps.

Most voyagers are attempting to reach Malaysia or Indonesia, and the promise of work and relative freedoms – despite the prospect of boat pushbacks and immigration detention that awaits them.

A new paper produced by the Lowy Institute lays out what nations in the region have done to avoid more instances of deaths at sea.

In 2015, ASEAN convened an Emergency Ministerial Meeting on Transnational Crime, resulting in a trust fund to support humanitarian efforts “resulting from irregular movements”.

The same year, it finalised the legally binding ASEAN Convention Against Trafficking in Persons (ACTIP).

In 2019, ASEAN adopted a Declaration on the Rights of Children in the Context of Migration – the only document explicitly mentioning asylum seekers and refugees.

While non-binding, it includes recommendations on child protection, education access, and alternatives to detention.

But the Lowy paper also points out gaps and shortcomings in the moves. These include limited resources and poor coordination between different authorities and levels of government.

“The risk of another crisis is growing. Ongoing civil war in Myanmar, the fallout from an earthquake in April, and worsening conditions in refugee camps in Cox’s Bazar are pushing more people to flee,” the paper says.

“Last year saw an 80 per cent increase in refugees and migrants attempting to cross the Andaman Sea, and 646 were reported dead or missing – the highest toll since 2014,” it says.

And the ending of US humanitarian support following the Trump administration’s aid cuts will only deepen regional vulnerabilities.

But the paper does canvas some hope for the future.

“The High-Level Rohingya Conference planned for September is a chance to demonstrate renewed commitment to displaced communities and push for increased resettlement,” it says.

“The ASEAN Summit later this month presents another moment to strengthen the bloc’s forced migration architecture, especially as Malaysia works behind the scenes to broker progress on the Myanmar crisis.

“And the upcoming Bali Process Ministerial Conference is a critical forum to move from rhetoric to real reform that can save lives at sea,” the paper says.

A decade on, reminders of the Andaman Sea crisis remain. The outcomes achieved over the next few months will determine whether the region has learned from the past. Read the full Lowy Institute paper: Australia’s role in preventing the next Andaman Sea refugee catastrophe | Lowy Institute

Over 400 Rohingya feared drowned in two shipwrecks off Myanmar coast: UN | Rohingya News | Al Jazeera