Climate change could drive tens of millions of people from their homes and cause economic and political chaos, according to a new report from the UN’s climate watchdog.

The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says that rising sea levels and unbearable temperatures will be the direct effect of unfettered climate change.

But it says that beyond the direct toll on humans, climate-driven migration is poised to disrupt economic and political stability leading to conflict.

The report says that most climate migration is likely to occur inside countries rather than across borders, and that some climate change effects could actually decrease migration in some areas.

Since the last major IPCC report in 2014, the panel has incorporated more social research into their findings, giving a fuller picture of how climate change will effects where people live.

“The science seems to be more convergent at this point in terms of the kinds of mobility patterns we’re talking about,” the authors say.

They say that climate change-induced migration is already occurring and putting people at risk.

Rising sea levels, drought, and extreme weather have forced people to move in areas like Pacific islands, sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia, the repost says.

Wealthy countries are also seeing climate change migration and more inequality.

“Through displacement and involuntary migration from extreme weather and climate events, climate change has generated and perpetuated vulnerability,” the report says.

Since 2008, an average of more than 20 million people per year have been displaced by extreme weather events, many of which were exacerbated by climate change, according to the IPCC.

And even under the best care scenarios for warming this century, these pressures are going to increase further.

But the report says factors such as economic development and adaptation could mitigate some of the factors that make people relocate.

“Climate-related migration is expected to increase, although the drivers and outcomes are highly context specific and insufficient evidence exists to estimate numbers of climate-related migrants now and in the future,” the report says.

The IPCC report highlights different projections for displacement and migration due to climate change.

One estimate forecasts between 31 million and 72 million people across sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America would be displaced by 2050 due to water stress, sea level rise, and crop failure, even under an aggressive effort to cut global emissions.

Another estimate says Africa could have the largest scale of climate-induced migration within countries as high as 85 million.

The report says climate change makes migration more likely in some places and trapped people in others.

In Kenya, increased rainfall is linked to reduced rural-to-urban movement, whereas in Zambia, more precipitation is poised to drive more migration. In Ghana, researchers found that drought led to fewer residents saying they were planning to move.

The report also focuses on some of the myths about climate migration.

It says that a common perception that a warmer world will lead to hordes of people fleeing poorer countries for wealthier ones, threatening the safety and the economy of any place they go is false.

The report says these perceptions are fuelling “media panic and xenophobia”.

It says that while climate change can bring immense pressure to move, migration is often a last resort with people often doing all that they can to stay where they are.

The report also raises the question of who should pay for mitigation programs.

It also points out that heavy emitters, such as Australia, actually benefit from global warming by drawing on labour from Pacific islands to help grow food while offering few options for permanent relocation for workers.

The report also questions the framing of migration as a problem.

It says notions of ‘solving’ climate migration are misguided as migration is an ordinary social, economic, and political process and in many cases might even be mutually beneficial.