Humanitarian agencies say they are bracing for another round of displacement in Afghanistan as the Taliban gains territory and Western forces withdraw.

Four decades after the first wave of Afghan refugees fled in the face of a Soviet invasion, and nearly 20 years after a US-led invasion transformed life in the country, the nation is bracing for more civil conflict.

Dozens of Afghanistan’s districts have already fallen over the last few months as Taliban fighters encircle provincial capitals, the UN Security Council was in a briefing recently.

But safe havens for fleeing Afghans may be in short supply as neighbouring countries such as Iran, Pakistan and Turkey are becoming less welcoming and say they don’t have the resources to support more refugees; and the European Union is hardening its position of accepting migrants.

The Taliban have seized more than 50 of roughly 370 districts nationwide since May, the UN briefing says.

The Afghan government’s control of areas outside its cities has always been tenuous but the rapid international troop withdrawals have almost paralysed the Afghan political system.

The US abandoned its Bagram airbase overnight without telling its new Afghan commander. The majority of coalition soldiers had already left ahead of the September deadline agreed with the Taliban.

The UN briefing says the Taliban is positioning itself to try and take more of the provincial capitals once foreign forces are fully withdrawn.

Last year’s US-Taliban treaty was supposed to pave the way for direct talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban, but fighting between the two has continued.

Meanwhile, nearby countries already hosting millions of Afghans say they are not equipped to handle a new influx if the security situation in Afghanistan continues to deteriorate and international programs to aid refugees remain underfunded.

Afghans fleeing war and violence have long sought safety in Pakistan, Turkey, Iran, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Many Afghans in these countries remain trapped in poverty, undocumented, subject to restrictions on work or study as under constant pressure to leave.

Economic and health crises related to COVID-19 have compounded the problem.

In April, President Biden announced the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan by September 11, 2021, nearly two decades after the US first invaded to oust the Taliban.

The US-backed Afghan government is taking over full security responsibilities – but experts say that the Taliban is poised to retake significant tracts of territory. And the UN briefing warns that the Afghan government could fall within six months.

This year around 200,000 Afghans have been internally displaced – after 380,000 were last year.

Around a thousand Afghans a month since April have fled by plane into Tajikistan to seek asylum, according to the UN.

Many more who cannot afford flights and have resorted to smuggling routes to sneak into nearby countries or have tried to make it to Europe, the UN briefing said.

The Taliban recently took control of the main border crossing into Tajikistan. It came after reports that more than a thousand Afghan soldiers crossed into Tajikistan in one night.

More than 1500 Afghan soldiers have now crossed the border. Tajikistan says it is admitting the troops as a gesture of humanity.

The US, UK, Australia and other coalition members have promised to relocate tens of thousands of Afghans who worked with their forces as drivers, interpreters and in other roles that have made them Taliban targets.

Human rights activists say a new Taliban regime would roll back many of the gains Afghanistan has made in terms of women’s rights and access to education, which they say would encourage many more to flee.

For decades, Pakistan and Iran have hosted a majority of the millions of Afghans on the run from war and conflict, along with neighbouring Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and nearby Turkey.

Since 2002, after the fall of the Taliban, nearly 5.3 million Afghans have voluntarily returned through a UNHCR program — although rates have significantly slowed in recent years, and some who returned have left again.

A UN report published at the end of 2019, said Afghans were the world’s third highest forcibly displaced people – most of them ethnic minorities, such as the Hazara.

Pakistan is home to about three million Afghans, with only half of whom are registered as refugees with the United Nations. The remainder are either undocumented or in the country on other documents. Pakistan is not a signatory to the UN refugee convention and has long urged Afghans to return home.

Iran hosts nearly a million registered Afghan refugees, in addition to more than 2.5 million who are undocumented or in the country on their Afghan passports.

US sanctions on Iran, have led to deteriorating economic conditions that have encouraged many Afghans there to find their way to Turkey.

But a 2016 EU-Turkey deal halted much of the flow of refugees and migrants from Turkey to Europe following a massive flow of asylum seekers to the continent in 2015.

If new waves arrive in Turkey, aid agencies say there will likely be is a new attempted influx into the European Union.

See the UN briefing here: UN Security Council Briefing on Afghanistan – YouTube

Humanitarian agencies say they are bracing for another round of displacement in Afghanistan as the Taliban gains territory and Western forces withdraw.

Four decades after the first wave of Afghan refugees fled in the face of a Soviet invasion, and nearly 20 years after a US-led invasion transformed life in the country, the nation is bracing for more civil conflict.

Dozens of Afghanistan’s districts have already fallen over the last few months as Taliban fighters encircle provincial capitals, the UN Security Council was in a briefing recently.

But safe havens for fleeing Afghans may be in short supply as neighbouring countries such as Iran, Pakistan and Turkey are becoming less welcoming and say they don’t have the resources to support more refugees; and the European Union is hardening its position of accepting migrants.

The Taliban have seized more than 50 of roughly 370 districts nationwide since May, the UN briefing says.

The Afghan government’s control of areas outside its cities has always been tenuous but the rapid international troop withdrawals have almost paralysed the Afghan political system.

The US abandoned its Bagram airbase overnight without telling its new Afghan commander. The majority of coalition soldiers had already left ahead of the September deadline agreed with the Taliban.

The UN briefing says the Taliban is positioning itself to try and take more of the provincial capitals once foreign forces are fully withdrawn.

Last year’s US-Taliban treaty was supposed to pave the way for direct talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban, but fighting between the two has continued.

Meanwhile, nearby countries already hosting millions of Afghans say they are not equipped to handle a new influx if the security situation in Afghanistan continues to deteriorate and international programs to aid refugees remain underfunded.

Afghans fleeing war and violence have long sought safety in Pakistan, Turkey, Iran, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Many Afghans in these countries remain trapped in poverty, undocumented, subject to restrictions on work or study as under constant pressure to leave.

Economic and health crises related to COVID-19 have compounded the problem.

In April, President Biden announced the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan by September 11, 2021, nearly two decades after the US first invaded to oust the Taliban.

The US-backed Afghan government is taking over full security responsibilities – but experts say that the Taliban is poised to retake significant tracts of territory. And the UN briefing warns that the Afghan government could fall within six months.

This year around 200,000 Afghans have been internally displaced – after 380,000 were last year.

Around a thousand Afghans a month since April have fled by plane into Tajikistan to seek asylum, according to the UN.

Many more who cannot afford flights and have resorted to smuggling routes to sneak into nearby countries or have tried to make it to Europe, the UN briefing said.

The Taliban recently took control of the main border crossing into Tajikistan. It came after reports that more than a thousand Afghan soldiers crossed into Tajikistan in one night.

More than 1500 Afghan soldiers have now crossed the border. Tajikistan says it is admitting the troops as a gesture of humanity.

The US, UK, Australia and other coalition members have promised to relocate tens of thousands of Afghans who worked with their forces as drivers, interpreters and in other roles that have made them Taliban targets.

Human rights activists say a new Taliban regime would roll back many of the gains Afghanistan has made in terms of women’s rights and access to education, which they say would encourage many more to flee.

For decades, Pakistan and Iran have hosted a majority of the millions of Afghans on the run from war and conflict, along with neighbouring Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and nearby Turkey.

Since 2002, after the fall of the Taliban, nearly 5.3 million Afghans have voluntarily returned through a UNHCR program — although rates have significantly slowed in recent years, and some who returned have left again.

A UN report published at the end of 2019, said Afghans were the world’s third highest forcibly displaced people – most of them ethnic minorities, such as the Hazara.

Pakistan is home to about three million Afghans, with only half of whom are registered as refugees with the United Nations. The remainder are either undocumented or in the country on other documents. Pakistan is not a signatory to the UN refugee convention and has long urged Afghans to return home.

Iran hosts nearly a million registered Afghan refugees, in addition to more than 2.5 million who are undocumented or in the country on their Afghan passports.

US sanctions on Iran, have led to deteriorating economic conditions that have encouraged many Afghans there to find their way to Turkey.

But a 2016 EU-Turkey deal halted much of the flow of refugees and migrants from Turkey to Europe following a massive flow of asylum seekers to the continent in 2015.

If new waves arrive in Turkey, aid agencies say there will likely be is a new attempted influx into the European Union.

See the UN briefing here: UN Security Council Briefing on Afghanistan – YouTube