The biggest population decline in Australia’s history may have begun as a result of the COVID-19 crisis with 300,000 tourists, temporary workers and students departing so far this year, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data.

But a leading expert says migrants will be crucial to a swift economic recovery. 

The number of temporary visa holders in Australia dropped by 260,000 in the first three months of 2020, with a further 50,000 departing in the first two weeks of April. 

In February 2020, there were 685,400 visitors arriving in Australia for a visit of less than a year, according to data released ABS. This was a decrease of 26 per cent compared to the same month a year ago.

There were 785,400 Australian residents who returned from overseas in February. An increase of 5.3 per cent from a year ago.

ABS Director of Migration Statistics, Jenny Dobak, said there was a decrease of visitors to Australia from most countries in February, and for some it was a large decrease. This coincides with the travel bans which were put in place at the beginning of February and the outbreak of COVID-19.

“Although China was previously the largest source country for visitors for this month, it had decreased by nearly 90 per cent when compared to a year ago,” she said.

Among the top ten source countries, the highest annual decreases beyond China were recorded for Hong Kong (-28 per cent), Singapore (-25 per cent), and Germany (-16 per cent). An increase of 16 per cent was recorded for those travelling to Australia from India.

Decreases in visitor arrivals were seen across all states and territories.

Former senior Immigration Department official Abul Rizvi has estimated that the number of temporary visa holders could drop to 1.82 million from more than 2.4 million at the start of the year.

He says Australia could be on the verge of the biggest percentage and absolute decline in its population since 1788, more than during the Great Depression or when the nation sent troops to the First World War.

Mr Rizvi estimates that one fifth of foreign students and a quarter of temporary foreign workers could go home by the end of the year.

“The design of the new jobkeeper payment will accelerate the sacking of most temporary visa holders, other than New Zealand citizens who can access the job keeper payment and a small number who may be able to get the job seeker payment,” Mr Rizvi said.

“All other long-term temporary entrants and possibly also provisional visa holders who cannot get a job, likely to number well in excess of a million people, will have to either depart if they can afford to or become destitute,” he said

But Mr Rizvi said the length and depth of the recession, and in particular the extent to which unemployment rises and average hours worked per month per adult falls, will depend not just on the length of time it takes before we overcome the virus but also on the effectiveness of the Government’s support measures to keep the maximum number of people connected to their employers.

“If net migration does move significantly into negative territory, history tells us that correlates with much higher levels of unemployment, as well as larger numbers of people who become destitute. Thus a policy to force net migration down faster will make recovery all the more difficult,” he said.

Mr Rizvi said developed world would likely emerge from the COVID-19 recession at a time when their populations are ageing.

“Population ageing in the developed world and in Australia will add to the challenge the Government faces in designing its recovery from the coronavirus recession,” he said.

“Recovery from that decline can be assisted if the Government does not insist on forcing Australia to experience negative net migration and possibly negative population growth, combined with a massive increase in the number of destitute people in Australia,” Mr Rizvi said.