This month marks two years since Myanmar’s military junta overthrew its civilian government in a bloody coup.

Under the rule of a brutal regime, the country has spiralled downward, as humanitarian, economic, and social crises have been exacerbated by the worsening conflict.

More than 1.1 million people have been forced from their homes, 50,000 houses have been torched by the military forces and more than 3,000 people have been killed.

There are currently more than 17,500 people have been arrested, including hundreds of children.

Areas of Myanmar with strong anti-regime forces have seen bitter fighting and brutal violence. In response to the challenge to their authority, the military last year launched 668 airstrikes, many on defenceless rural villages.

In many regions, women and girls have taken up arms and provided logistic support in the fight against the junta.

In other places, parents and teachers have gone to extraordinary lengths to keep schools running amid the bombings.

Meanwhile, those who have fled the violence – including the Rohingya, whose mass exodus in the wake of military-led ethnic cleansing began in 2017, long before the coup – have yet to find a permanent refuge.

About a million of them live precariously in cramped refugee camps in Bangladesh.

In Myanmar, an estimated 17.6 million people are in need humanitarian aid, but the crisis has become largely forgotten internationally in the wake of fresh crises in Ukraine and elsewhere, meaning the humanitarian response remains severely underfunded.

Myanmar journalist Nay Thwin, who fled his homeland for Australia after being threatened with jail, says the situation in Myanmar remains complicated with ordinary people still suffering repression at the hands of regime but with glimmers of hope for political change.

“The revolutionary forces are controlling more rural areas and more and more places are under their control,” Nay Thwin said.

The revolutionary forces are represented by the National Unity Government (NUG), of which the People’s Defence Force (PDF) is the military arm.

Nay Thwin says ordinary people are feeling unsafe and struggling to make ends meet

“Life for ordinary people is increasingly insecure. Even my family, who live in a relatively peaceful part of Burma, are feeling more threatened,’ he said.

“There is more fighting across the country and a rising sense of insecurity everywhere.

“Meanwhile, commodity prices are higher and many people have no job so they struggling with their livelihoods; and there is no prospect of things getting better in the near future.”

Nay Thwin says the NUG has declared 2023 a decisive year for the revolution.

“At the same time the military regime has extended its emergency powers for six months, meaning that martial law will continue,” he said.

“Earlier the regime said it would arrange elections in November or December this year. But now we don’t expect that will happen in the next few years.

“At the same time, the opposition is pushing for regime change. So, in way this year is very important and some people are expecting a clear resolution to things this year.

“I have seen this scenario before in the 2010 election. My expectation is that the revolutionary forces will control more areas but we won’t see regime change.

“A clear resolution through and election or regime change cannot happen easily.”

Nay Thwin says that another key thing to watch this year was China’s attitude to the military regime.

In a surprise twist, a recent UN Security Council resolution which demanded the release of all political prisoners and a peaceful solution to the conflict was not vetoed by China.

The UN Security Council upheld the ‘ASEAN Consensus’ which, which was agreed to by South East Asian countries, including the Myanmar junta, called for an immediate end to              
violence in the country; dialogue among all parties; the appointment of a special envoy; humanitarian assistance by ASEAN; and the special envoy’s visit to Myanmar to meet with all parties.

But coup leader General Min Aung Hlaing has defied each point while overseeing a brutal nationwide crackdown aimed at suppressing the millions of people opposed to military rule.

“The UN Security Council upheld the ASEAN Consensus and China did not veto it,” Nay Thwin said.

“This could mean we are edging towards some sort of resolution,” he said.

Also, the US Congress recently passed the Burma Act which could see financial aid flow to the opposition groups in Myanmar.