The displacement of people as a result of the conflict in the Tigray region of Ethiopia has now officially tipped over the one million mark but is likely to be much higher, according to the International Organisation for Migration (IOM).

The UN’s migration arm, IOM says has used its Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) to analyse 178 accessible locations in Ethiopia’s Tigray region and neighbouring Afar and Amhara.

The data was collected through a monthly Emergency Site Assessment (ESA) which has been in place since the conflict in northern Ethiopia erupted in November 2020. 

“The assessment, conducted between March 2 and March 23, revealed that there are some 1,000,052 internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Tigray region, another 45,343 in Afar region and 18,781 in Amhara region,” IOM said.

“The data suggests that IDPs are fleeing to towns and cities to seek humanitarian assistance and gain access to essential services,” the agency said after its fourth assessment of the area. 

But the data is only indicative of the displacement in areas accessible to investigators. Many areas in the north western, central, eastern and southern parts of Tigray are out of reach to humanitarian workers due to continuing insecurity. 

According to the surveys, among the most urgent needs of those displaced are life-saving food assistance, emergency shelter, non-food items such as bedding and kitchen gear, access to healthcare services, access to water, sanitation and hygiene and protection services.  

Significantly, 75 sites have reportedly not received food distribution since the conflict broke out. An estimated 60 of these sites, or 80 per cent, are in the Tigray region, IOM says.  

Since the beginning of the crisis, IOM has been monitoring the humanitarian and displacement situation through monthly area-based assessments, which capture the number of displaced persons, their locations and needs to inform the wider humanitarian response. 

“IOM’s Displacement Tracking Matrix will continue to expand its assessment coverage in the north so that the needs of more internally displaced persons can be assessed. Since 2018, this matrix has been the official source for displacement numbers in Ethiopia,” IOM said in a statement.

The conflict in Tigray flared in November last year when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ordered a military intervention against the region’s powerful ruling party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), after reports of attacks on government military bases.

Aid operations in Tigray, which hosts around 200,000 internally displaced people and refugees from neighbouring Eritrea, have been severely curtailed since.

Tensions between the TPLF and the federal government have been escalating since September 2020, when Addis Ababa indefinitely postponed regional and national elections because of the COVID-19 pandemic. TPLF officials opposed the decision and organised their own elections.

An ethnic Tigrayan party, the TPLF was the dominant force in Ethiopian politics until Abiy took office in 2018. Its members have since lost positions within the central government, and several officials have been arrested for corruption and human rights abuses.

Just six percent of Ethiopia’s more than 100 million population live in Tigray, but local officials have dominated the country politically since the TPLF led a guerrilla struggle that defeated the country’s Marxist junta, known as the Derg, in 1991.

In power, the TPLF introduced a new constitution that saw Ethiopia divided into nine ethnically based regions – each with their own security forces, parliaments, and the right to secede.

The party was the driving force within the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a coalition of ethnic parties that was controlled by the TPLF and ruled with an iron fist for almost 30 years.

The removal of Tigrayan officials after Abiy – an ethnic Oromo – came to power on the back of mass protests against the EPRDF, fuelled by a sense of ethnic discrimination among party members.

Then, last November, Abiy dissolved the EPRDF, creating a “pan-Ethiopian” national party, known as the Prosperity Party, which opposition groups considered an attempt to centralise state power and deconstruct the federal system. The TPLF refused to join.

Since the TPLF won regional elections in September, both sides have described each other as illegitimate, while the finance ministry in Addis Ababa has frozen money to Mekelle, Tigray’s capital – a move TPLF leaders have said was a “declaration of war”.

Tigrayan leaders have complained of being unfairly targeted in corruption prosecutions, removed from top positions and blamed for the country’s problems.

Both sides of the conflict are heavily armed. The national army has redeployed troops to Tigray from across Ethiopia amid concerns about the loyalty of the Northern Command, which constitutes a large proportion of the country’s overall number of troops.