Opinion – Dr. Ian Pringle

Refugees and displaced persons are usually the people most buffeted by the capricious winds of fortune.

They are the most vulnerable, and the first to suffer, from disruptive events such as conflicts, economic downturns, the closure of national borders and climate change-induced extreme weather events.

And so, as Donald Trump upends the world’s financial markets, trade arrangements and the global humanitarian system, it is refugees and the displaced who are shouldering the worst of the deleterious fallout from the US Government’s appalling actions.

Fears of a global economic downturn, and maybe even a recession, have seen long-term donors such as the UK and the EU slash their foreign aid budgets, affecting hundreds of humanitarian programs across the globe.

This came after the US itself ended almost all USAID programs, which was at $US60 billion a year, accounted for about 30 per cent of all humanitarian funding across the world.

Humanitarian organisations around the world have been scrambling to find solutions and alternative funding since President Trump took office in January, pushing an anti-refugee and anti-migrant agenda and immediately freezing almost all US foreign aid funding.

Estimates by NGOs, UN agencies and former USAID officials say this act alone, which affects 10,000 individual programs, could lead to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people, including untold numbers of children.

From HIV drug supplies in the Congo to food programs for Syrian refugees and hospitals in Gaza; and from Ebola clinics in Uganda to health and nutrition for Rohingya refugees, the dismantling of USAID is having a devastating effect.

The UN has warned that the reduced funding is threatening the health of almost 13 million displaced people.

And at least 14 million children are expected to face disruptions to nutrition support and services because of recent cuts and the fall-out from any US-instigated trade war. The cuts will leave them at greater risk of severe malnutrition and death, UNICEF has warned.

The funding crisis comes at a time of unprecedented numbers of refugees and the displaced, particularly children, whose needs are dire and amid record levels of displacement, new and protracted conflicts, disease outbreaks, and the lethal consequences of climate change – all of which are undermining their access to adequate health care and nutrition.

At the same time, the US is ramping up the deportation of asylum seekers from US, leaving hundreds of thousands of people uncertain about material support and their futures.

This despite surveys by the US-based think tank the Pew Research Center showing most Americans do not support the deportation of immigrants if they have a job, are parents of children born in the US, came to the US as children or are married to a US citizen.

Most Americans also oppose the Trump Administration’s move to end the right to citizenship for people born in the US.

Two features of Trump’s policies have been stopping migrants from entering the US and tariffs – which amount to economic sanctions on other nations.

Ironically, new research shows that economic sanctions are a major driver of migration.

The US based Center for Economic and Policy Research says there is overwhelming evidence that migration is driven in large part by “adverse economic conditions and that sanctions can have severe, harmful economic and humanitarian consequences for civilians in targeted countries”.

It appears, so far, that Trump’s tariffs will disproportionately hit poorer countries with vulnerable populations. Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos are facing 48 per cent tariffs, Bangladesh 37 per cent, while for countries like Australia, the level is more like ten per cent.

This is likely to create poverty and thus potential displacement as desperate people seek opportunities to support themselves and their families.

The other worrying effect of the Trump presidency is increased global strategic uncertainty.

The US’ seeming abrogation of its 80-year role as the leader of the free world and its eschewal of a rules-based order, underpinned by democracy and shared liberal values, has made the world a more dangerous place.

You only have to look at the US’ effective extortion of Ukraine, its treatment of its closest ally Canada and its threat to annex Greenland to realise that, as far as the great Western alliance goes, all bets are off.

What we have now is a world where there is a much greater prospect of conflict which will surely create more refugees, more displaced persons and more suffering.

It’s easy for people shielded from hardship by their wealth to make decisions that negatively affect the material lives of millions of others who are less well-off, not to mention struggling through poverty and uncertainty.

Maybe Trump and his inner circle would find an edifying lesson if they were made to walk for a day in the shoes of the people of the Congo, Sudan, Afghanistan, Ukraine, Venezuela or any of a dozen other places.

Trump’s so-called ‘Liberation Day’ may effectively mean crushing economic enslavement for millions.

Dr Ian Pringle is an econometrician whose major research focus is on the development and sustainability of industry clusters in Australia and parts of Asia.