Refugee and migrant communities are breathing a sigh of relief following the Labour Party’s decisive victory in the 2025 federal election.

The Coalition’s policies going into the poll included a proposed 100,000-place cut to net overseas migration and refugee places falling from 20,000 to 13,500.

Syrian community leader Norma Medawar said many families in her community were working to bring family and loved ones to Australia following the chaos and violence in Syria triggered by the fall of the Assad regime.

“A lot of people are worried about their families still in Syria, especially as the future seems uncertain,” Ms Medawar said.

“So, if there are fewer refugee places, it makes it harder to bring people to safety. I think a lot of people focused on this issue when they were voting,” she said.

Afghan community leader Mohammad Shafiq said immigration numbers were a large influencing factor among Afghans voting in the election.

“For people wanting to bring family members to Australia, the Liberals’ immigration cuts were a concern, especially as America has effectively closed its borders to Afghans,” Mr Shafiq said.

“And I think the Coalition’s policies sent a message that migrants and refugees were maybe not so welcome; that we are to blame for things like housing shortages. I think that may have turned a lot of people away from voting for the Coalition,” he said.

Commentators have said the lack of detail around which visa streams would be targeted was also factor.

Director of polling organisation Redbridge Group director Simon Welsh said the Coalition’s stance on immigration had backfired.

“Where the electorate was wanting hope and a positive plan, they were offering negativity,” Mr Welsh said.

Throughout the campaign, outgoing Liberal leader Peter Dutton continually linked record levels of migration — which peaked at 536,000 in 2022-23, but which Treasury estimates will return to 260,000 next year — with heightening demand on housing supply and pushing up prices.

While Mr Dutton ruled out cutting partner and working holiday visa places, he pledged to reduce international student numbers by hiking visa application fees and cutting public university placers by 25 per cent.

Commentators have noted that this kind of divisive rhetoric turned voters away from the Coalition.

Mr Welsh said there were two distinct voting blocs — established migrant communities and those in the “growth phase”, which are experiencing higher levels of migration to Australia.

Among the latter group, which includes the Indian and Chinese diaspora, Mr Welsh said the Coalition’s immigration policies “really were a negative”.

“For families that are thinking about wanting to bring family over, because those communities are in this growth phase, that Liberal stuff was definitely a drag to them,” he said.

The effect of the Coalition’s policies was evident in the results across Sydney and Melbourne.

Labour retained Hawke, Gorton and Chisholm in Victoria, and Parramatta and Reid in NSW, despite early polling showing these highly diverse seats were contestable.

In a recent research paper, Emeritus Professor Peter McDonald and Professor Alan Gamlen of the ANU Migration Hub argued that migration numbers were being “weaponised” to “elicit panic and sway voters”.

And they outlined several reasons for the record migration levels during 2022-23.

These included an influx of students, backpackers and temporary workers unable to travel during the pandemic, as well as several visa extensions under the Morrison and Albanese governments.