The 2025 federal budget will see continued support for refugee settlement, but the migrant intake will shrink as the government weighs global economic and geopolitical instability against an ongoing domestic cost of living crisis.

Australia’s commitment to settle 20,000 refugees each year will continue at a time when many countries are closing their borders to those fleeing war or persecution, and while an increasing number of global conflicts are driving record human displacement.

But the numbers of migrants arriving will fall to 260,000 over the next budget year, down from 335,000 this year.

The budget includes modest cost of living measures, including a tax cut for every taxpayer worth $268 in 2026-27 and rising to $536 the following year. The cuts will cost the budget $17 billion.

Households and small businesses will get a another $150 off their power bills from July 1 under an announcement made prior to the budget.

The $1.8bn measure extends power bill relief until the end of 2025, with the $300 rebates announced in last year’s budget due to expire on 30 June.

The budget also contains an $8.5 billion boost to Medicare aimed at extending bulk-billing target of nine out of ten GP visits by 2030.

There is also an extra $650 million for urgent care clinics and $573 million for women’s health.

The ALP has also committed to limit the costs of prescriptions on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme to no more than $25 a script, at a cost to the budget of $689 million.

The announcement of $573.3 million for women’s health to improve access to healthcare and affordability for women, particularly in areas such as contraception, menopause, perimenopause, and endometriosis care, will have an impact in diverse communities who often find it difficult to navigate the health care system.

The budget also includes $5.4 million for the Health in My Language program, which will continue to support of migrant and refugee women to access culturally safe health services.

Students and graduates will have 20 per cent of their student debt waived.

There are also measures to make student loans easier to pay off, by reducing repayment rates and raising the income threshold at which people need to start paying money back.

The government is also putting an extra $800m into its Help to Buy shared-equity housing scheme to assist more young Australians to buy homes.

The scheme contributes up to 40 per cent of the purchase price of a house. Income caps for access will rise from $90,000 to $100,000 for singles, and from $120,000 to $160,000 for joint applications, while the maximum purchase price in each city will also rise to reflect higher home prices. This will cost $850 million over four years.

The states and territories will also be offered almost $50m in funding to grow their local prefabrication and modular housing industries.

The budget includes $5.7 million for the Australian Taxation Office to enforce a ban on foreign investors buying existing homes for two years from next month.

It also contains $178.4 million investment over five years to strengthen social cohesion, including $10 million for independent multicultural media and $44.8 million in grants for community projects.

Federal spending on schools will rise from 20 to 25 per cent of their resourcing standard, under funding agreements with state and territory governments that will ensure public schools are fully funded under the Gonski reforms.

This adds to the government’s three-day childcare guarantee, and wage rise for workers, accounting for $5 billion of budget spending. There are also 100,000 fee-free TAFE places until 2035, at a cost of $1.6 billion.

Real wages are forecast by the budget to grow by 0.5 per cent in 2024-25 and 0.25 per cent in 2025-26 while unemployment will remain near record lows.

The budget will head back into deficit after two consecutive surpluses – meaning the government’s spending is greater than its income.

The deficit for 2024-25 is $27.6 billion and that figure will increase to $42.1 billion in 2025-26.

The outlook for economic growth is modest but better than expected with growth expected to lift from 1.5 per cent this budget year to 2.25 per cent in 2025-26.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says this will be driven by the private sector rather than government spending.

The budget estimates indicate inflation is falling faster than previously forecast and should remain in the Reserve Bank’s target band of 2 to 3 per cent. This is expected to deliver further interest rate cuts.

The nation’s total tax intake will hit $663 billion this budget year, before climbing to $694 billion next financial year.

Income tax netted in the most income for the government.

The government is expected to call the election within a week, meaning a May 3 or May 10 poll.