Last year was a terrible one for humanitarianism, and 2026 is shaping as even worse.

A depressing litany of wars and negative geopolitical trends, as well as the continuing erosion of international law, rights and norms across the world, seems likely to produce increased volatility and uncertainty for millions of people this year.

There seems no more sharp illustration of this descent into anarchy than the US’s abduction of Venezuela’s authoritarian president Nicolas Maduro and its threats to invade Greenland.

Add to that the rise of far-right, anti-immigrant, populist leaders, the evisceration of global humanitarian aid, the rise of transactional global politics as well as the rising number of conflicts around the globe and it’s not difficult not to find a reason pessimism.

Throughout 2026, conflict raged in Ukraine, Sudan, Myanmar and the Sahel. The war in Gaza as did gang turf battles in Haiti. The war in Gaza abated but only after Israeli strikes destroyed most of the strip’s building and infrastructure.

Cambodia and Thailand traded bullets along their border as did Afghanistan and Pakistan. Rwanda has effectively annexed parts of eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.

Civil war continues in Sudan and in Ethiopia and Eritrea, while an insurgent emergency in Mali and Burkina Faso shows no sign of ending.

Equally worrying are some of the political trends that have developed across the world over the past 12 months.

Here’s a list of some worrying developments that will continue to play out in 2026.

Aid slashed

The US Agency for International Development (USAID) his effectively been abolished by the administration Trump. Other western nations have also cut their humanitarian aid contributions.

This has had a big impact on HIV/AIDS programming and could also see the rise of infectious diseases like tuberculosis, malaria, and polio.

About 12 million refugees and displaced people face losing access to direct humanitarian assistance because of the cuts.

Financial aid and the delivery of emergency relief items have been cut by 60 per cent globally and shelter programmes have been critically diminished.

A report in the medical journal The Lancet says the Trump Administration’s move to cut most of the US’ funding towards foreign humanitarian aid could cause more than 14 million additional deaths by 2030, a third of them children. 

Territorial conquest

Territorial expansionism has re-emerged as a global driver of humanitarian need, according to the UN refugee agency UNHCR.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the conflict in Gaza conflict in Africa has displaced hundreds of thousands of people.

The M23 rebel group’s seizure of cities and large rural areas of eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo has entrenched Rwandan control over mineral resources and has effectively created a police state and human rights abuses.

Forces backed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have fuelled conflicts in Yemen and Sudan fought over oil and gold which have led to massacres and crackdowns on civil society.

This, in turn, has disrupted access to aid and produced recurring cycles of displacement.

Far right populism

Hostility towards migration and immigrants – including people in need of protection – has increased across the globe in the past year.

While the US; Trump administration has led the way, many other nations have adopted draconian policy positions migration – including Germany and UK.

Other nations, such as Hungary, Italy and Denmark, have gone further by speeding up the deportation of migrants, many of whom were seeking protection.

Escalating climate disasters

The past year has seen several major humanitarian crises attributed extreme climate events. Massive monsoon floods claimed more than 1700 in Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and Malaysia; while Hurricane Melissa, one of the most powerful Atlantic storms ever, flattened entire communities in Jamaica.

In late 2025, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said “we have failed to avoid an overshooting above 1.5C in the next few years”.

Scientists at Climate Analytics described it as a “planetary limit beyond which climate impacts escalate and risk triggering catastrophic tipping points”.

2023, 2024, and 2025 have been the hottest years on record and the consequences are already stark and increasingly frequent.

The UN’s emergency aid coordination body, OCHA, has said climate change will put a large burden on the humanitarian community.

Gender equity under threat

There has been a backlash across much of the globe against women’s rights, gender equality, and LBGTQ+ rights, often disguised as ‘anti-woke’ ideology.

The UNHCR’s Antonio Guterres has warned of a surge in misogyny, and a backlash against gender equality that threatens to reverse the progress made in recent years.

In countries like the US, Argentina, Poland and Hungary abortion rights are being eroded by right-wing governments.

Italy’s government is seeking to restrict sex education and, the new ‘personal status code’ in Iraq discriminates against women in marriage, divorce, inheritance, and guardianship of children.

Ongoing conflicts

Added to these political developments are the world’s ongoing conflicts, which are drivers of humanitarian crises.

These include the wars and conflicts in Ukraine, Sudan, Syria, Ethiopia and Eritrea, Mali and Burkina-Faso, Myanmar, Venezuela, Afghanistan and Pakistan, Cambodia and Thailand, Yemen and Gaza.

Across 2025 fighting continued in all of these places and India and Pakistan briefly traded blows.

The result was a spike in conflict worldwide and major wars breaking out with disturbing frequency.