The US has recorded net negative international migration for the first time in 50 years, new data shows

And the loss in population may be as high as almost 300,000.

According to estimates from the US Census Bureau and the Brookings Institution in 2025 more people left the US than arrived, marking a sharp reversal from decades of positive net migration.

Estimates for the net loss in 2025 range between 10,000 and 295,000 people. The shift resulted from both a significant drop in new arrivals and an increase in emigration.

Projections for 2026 show the trend could continue, with net migration potentially remaining low or negative.

The US Census Bureau reported that net international migration peaked at 2.7 million in 2024, then fell to about 1.3 million in 2025. It is projected to drop further to around 321,000 in 2026 if current trends hold.

This marks the first time since the Great Depression era that the US has seen more people leave than enter on a net basis. The Brookings Institution estimated that net population flows of between -295,000 and -10,000 for 2025.

“The decline stems from reduced immigration inflows and higher emigration,” the US Census Bureau report said.

Policies implemented by the Trump administration in January 2025 contributed to stricter border enforcement and changes in legal immigration pathways.

These included increased deportations and reduced approvals for certain visas and humanitarian programs.

Emigration also rose as some US citizens and long-term residents moved abroad.

Factors mentioned in the reports include economic considerations, quality-of-life decisions, and responses to policy changes.

The US Census report said sustained negative or very low net migration would slow US population growth.

It said slower labour force expansion, which could affect GDP growth, consumer spending, and job markets in coming years.

“Over the next 10 to 20 years, continued low levels of migration could lead to slower overall population growth, particularly in areas that have relied heavily on foreign-born workers,” the report said.

“Natural population change (births minus deaths) has remained relatively flat, making migration a key driver of past growth.

“The situation remains fluid. Future policy decisions, economic conditions, and global events will influence migration flows,” the report said.

The Census Bureau’s next population estimates will provide further clarity on 2026 trends.

See the full report: New Population Estimates Show Historic Decline in Net International Migration